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Domestic aniline Market is bottoming out
Source:www.chemjunchi.com issuing time:2014-12-04

Since October, the domestic aniline Market has continued the decline market which started in July, continues to shock down, searches for the bottom. As of November 27th, the domestic mainstream transaction price fell to 8000 yuan (ton price, the same below), low prices have dropped to 7800~7900 yuan, two months of deep down more than 11%, a record low of 4 years. Business losses continue to expand, causing many enterprises to stop production or semi production, and some enterprises even plan to shut down production. From the market first learned by the recent raw material benzene stabilized stabilized enterprise load to a limit, the downstream procurement situation is expected to reverse the effect of three factors, and promote the rate of favorable policies, the market outlook will usher in the bottom of aniline stabilized opportunity.

According to industry analysis, this round of price decline in addition due to weak downstream demand, upstream raw material pressure, is also affected by environmental governance lead to domestic downstream non normal production and weak macroeconomic side, can not fully reflect the laws of market development. It is understood that due to the current sales into losses, enterprises around the world sell psychological enhancement, started down the negative price strategy to deal with the current predicament.

The market will have the following favorable factors:

- stabilized stabilized foundation to support the formation of benzene

According to market feedback information shows that as of November 27th (mainly refers to the domestic petroleum benzene benzene) mainstream price in 7000 ~ 7100 yuan, there are signs of disk stability. Most intermediaries and downstream manufacturers worry that the existing stock is low, and once the market turns over, it will lead to a failure to fill the warehouse. According to industry analysts, the hydrogenation of benzene and benzene oil price is too large (700 ~ 900), the rapid rebound is unlikely to petroleum benzene, but deep down again the space is limited, stabilize shocks will become the mainstream trend. Therefore, in the current inventory of enterprises is generally low benzene aniline background, once pure rebound, the market is closely linked with the trend of the aniline benzene will form the basis for support, do not rule out the possibility of follow up.

- reverse the purchasing situation to sustain demand support

It is understood that aniline fell to the current price, Shandong Yantai Wanhua MDI production enterprises supporting device has not purchased it from aniline. These enterprises in November after the overhaul period, is expected to purchase a large number of foreign warehousing, enterprises will inevitably form procurement highlights, for low load, low price of the aniline Market into warmer power. In addition, in November, domestic and downstream enterprises due to environmental protection facilities caused by abnormal parking will end. Terminal demand still exists, dye, additive, medicine, pesticide wait for an enterprise to also will begin in succession, restore normal purchase quantity. At the same time, the active dyes downstream of aniline is still in the period of recovery growth, and export growth is small, both for the current downturn in the market provides a good support for demand.

- enterprise load drops to low limit

According to incomplete statistics, at present, the domestic integrated operation rate of aniline enterprises has dropped to 4 years low, maintained at about 30%, reaching the low production load limit. According to the number of Hebei, Jiangsu aniline enterprises reflect the sales price of 8000 yuan, calculated in accordance with the current price, with benzene has entered, enterprise losses. No sales of aniline products have been faced with greater cost pressure, which is one of the reasons why some enterprises plan to stop production and change production. A number of production enterprises said that from the cost accounting considerations, each device operating rate fell to less than 40%, the possibility of enterprise profits has been very small. Therefore, based on the current status of enterprise construction, the market price of new decline is not large. According to relevant data, nearly 3 months of price decline in more than pure aniline or 5%, leading enterprises to drop deep down load leads also provides support for the market.

- cut interest rates, good commodity markets

In addition, China's central bank announced a sudden cut in interest rates in November 21st, a positive commodity market. Notice that since November 22nd, the financial institutions a one-year benchmark deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%, the benchmark one-year lending rate by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%, this is the first cut since July 2012 to the central bank, causing commodity currencies and commodity prices rise. The central bank also said that China has basically have the interest rate market reform further forward the basic conditions. China will continue to promote the marketization of deposit interest rates in a timely manner through the issuance of certificates of deposit and other forms for enterprises and individuals. Market analysts have pointed out that the introduction of financial easing and incentive investment policy, will be conducive to corporate finance and expand commodity exports. Policy is also stable, aniline Market Outlook is another good foundation, the industry is expected to usher in a new bottoming out to stabilize the opportunity.


  

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